Economy

Key points

• Share markets have fallen sharply in recent weeks asuncertainty around US President Trump’s policies have led to renewed concerns about the risk of recession at a time when share market valuations were stretched.
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Key points

• The key themes for 2024 were: better than feared growth;global divergence; more disinflation; falling interest ratesbut with Australia lagging; and more geopolitical threats butnot as bad as feared. As in 2023, returns were strong.
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Key points

• Many of the mistakes investors make are based on commonsense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong.
• As a result, it’s often wise for investors to turn common sense logic on its head.
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Key points

• While growth assets like shares go through bouts of short- term underperformance versus bonds and cash, they provide superior long-term returns. So, it makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them.
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Key points

• The risk of recession is high.
• The falls in shares and commodity prices reflect this.
• Lower growth and recession would mean a high risk of the inflation rate undershooting the RBA’s inflation target.
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Key points

• 2023 turned out to be a strong year for investors with shares and bonds rallying on the back of falling inflation, the anticipation of interest rate cuts in 2024 and better than feared economic growth. There were bumps along the way, but balanced super funds returned around 9.5%.
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Key points

• 2023 was a year of extreme volatility and uncertainty. Central banks around the world confirmed a commitment to higher interest rates due to inflation concerns.
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Feeling a bit seasick from the volatility of the world’s financial markets?